Antero Midstream Corp
AMdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on fileAntero Midstream Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.99 and $82.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $898.2M1 | $920M2 | $1.04B3 | $1.11B3 | $1.19B3 |
| Net income | $331.6M4 | $326.2M5 | $371.8M6 | $400.9M6 | $413.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $709.8M7 | $699.6M8 | $779.1M9 | $844M9 | $932.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $216.7M10 | $266,00011 | $70M11 | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $482.9M8 | $778.8M9 | $774M9 | — |
| Total debt | $6.25B12 | $6.72B13 | $6.43B14 | $6.23B15 | $6.45B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | $66,00016 | — | $180.4M17 |
| Diluted shares | 479.7M | 480.3M | 482.4M | 485.2M | 482.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $40.9 of net worth that earned you $8.57 last year, against $133.67 of debt.
It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.99 and $82.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$774M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$774M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$371.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.94 |
| Base | 20.0% | $39.34 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $39.34 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001161 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001161 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001377 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000862 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013380 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)