MeritValue

ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC

ALXOdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC earns about -117% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$01———
Net income−$83.5M2−$123.5M3−$160.8M4−$134.9M4−$101.7M4
Operating cash flow−$68.1M5−$89.2M6−$130.4M7−$121.9M7−$84.1M7
Capital expenditure$666,0008$1.43M9$1.27M10$447,00010$212,00010
Free cash flow (derived)−$68.8M5−$90.7M6−$131.6M7−$122.4M7−$84.4M7
Total debt—$20M11$20.2M12$20.5M13$19.9M13
Cash & equivalents$363.7M14$48.8M15$22.4M16$17.6M16$16.4M16
Diluted shares40.3M40.7M43.0M52.2M53.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.95
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.71

10 shares is a claim on $4.84 of net worth that earned you −$18.95 and generated −$15.72 of cash last year, against $3.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-117% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -41%FY23 -67%FY24 -90%FY25 -268%

It earned an average -117% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027955 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034761 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027955 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034761 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027955 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034761 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098454 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027955 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034761 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098454 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027955 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034761 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)