MeritValue

Alvotech

ALVOdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alvotech earns about -557% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 182% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36.8M1$83M2$91.4M3$489.7M3$586.3M3
Net income−$101.5M4−$513.6M5−$551.7M6−$231.9M6$27.9M6
Operating cash flow−$228.2M7−$312.4M8−$312.2M9−$236.8M9−$50.2M9
Capital expenditure$20.5M10$37.9M11$33.2M12$53.7M12$64.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$248.6M7−$350.3M8−$345.4M9−$290.5M9−$114.7M9
Total debt$400.9M13$764.6M14$960.2M15$1.07B15$1.3B15
Cash & equivalents$17.6M16$66.4M17$11.2M17$51.4M17$172.4M17
Diluted shares110.7M248.6M266.8M301.8M312.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$9.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.89
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$41.63

10 shares is a claim on −$9.12 of net worth that earned you $0.89 and generated −$3.67 of cash last year, against $41.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-557% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -284%FY23 -2497%FY24 -9%FY25 16%

It earned an average -557% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+182% shares · 5y

Share count is up 182% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 224% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012230 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012230 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012230 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012230 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012230 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015052 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001898416-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)