MeritValue

AUTOLIV INC

ALVdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AUTOLIV INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.15 and $283.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.23B1$8.84B2$10.5B3$10.4B3$10.8B3
Net income$435M4$423M5$488M6$646M6$735M6
Operating cash flow$754M7$713M8$982M9$1.06B9$1.16B9
Capital expenditure$458M10$585M11$573M12$579M12$441M12
Free cash flow (derived)$296M7$128M8$409M9$480M9$716M9
Total debt$2.01B13$1.77B14$1.86B15$1.91B16$2.15B16
Cash & equivalents$969M17$594M18$498M19$330M20$604M20
Diluted shares87.7M87.2M85.2M80.4M76.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$334.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$95.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$93.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$279.97

10 shares is a claim on $334.46 of net worth that earned you $95.58 and generated $93.11 of cash last year, against $279.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 12%FY23 14%FY24 19%FY25 20%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.15 and $283.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$283.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.5%
  • fcfBase$480M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$161.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.5%
  • fcfBase$480M
Earnings Power Value
$65.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$488M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.5%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $161.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.86
Base17.5%$161.8
Bull20.0%$180.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002977 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002977 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016787 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-058162 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)