MeritValue

Alto Ingredients, Inc.

ALTOdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Alto Ingredients, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$100M2$1.22B3$965.3M3$917.9M3
Net income$46.1M4−$41.6M5−$28M6−$59M6$13.3M6
Operating cash flow$26.8M7$6.05M8$22M9−$3.52M9$13.2M9
Capital expenditure$16.4M10$37.7M11$29.5M12$11.1M12$4.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.4M7−$31.7M8−$7.51M9−$14.6M9$8.65M9
Total debt$100.8M13$146.4M14$172.8M15$192.6M16$164.2M16
Cash & equivalents$50.6M17$36.5M18$30M19$35.5M19$23.4M19
Diluted shares72.2M71.9M73.3M73.5M75.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.7

10 shares is a claim on $32.41 of net worth that earned you $1.76 and generated $1.14 of cash last year, against $21.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 -7%FY23 -4%FY24 -12%FY25 3%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012260 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019976 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023709 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023709 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022351 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023709 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019976 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022351 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023709 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023709 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-027687 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)