MeritValue

Altimmune, Inc.

ALTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Altimmune, Inc. earns about -213% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 113% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.41M1−$68,0002$426,0003$20,0004$41,0004
Net income−$97.1M5−$84.7M6−$88.4M7−$95.1M8−$88.1M8
Operating cash flow−$78.2M9−$62.6M10−$75.8M11−$79.8M12−$67.5M12
Capital expenditure$12.1M13$126,00014$47,00015—$11,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$90.4M9−$62.7M10−$75.9M11—−$67.5M12
Total debt$1.45M17$4.58M17——$68.6M18
Cash & equivalents$190.3M19$111.1M20$135.1M21$36.9M22$43.8M22
Diluted shares41.3M46.9M53.2M71.0M88.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.78

10 shares is a claim on $25.53 of net worth that earned you −$10 and generated −$7.67 of cash last year, against $7.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-213% avg · 5y
FY21 -746%FY22 -85%FY23 -118%FY24 -87%FY25 -28%

It earned an average -213% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+113% shares · 5y

Share count is up 113% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 4616% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-003659 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326190-24-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326190-25-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326190-23-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326190-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326190-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326190-23-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326190-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326190-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326190-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326190-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326190-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326190-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001326190-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001326190-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001326190-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001326190-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)