MeritValue

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

ALSNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $75.25 and $213.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.4B1$2.77B2$3.04B3$3.23B3$3.01B3
Net income$442M4$531M5$673M6$731M6$623M6
Operating cash flow$635M7$657M8$784M9$801M9$836M9
Capital expenditure$175M10$167M11$125M12$143M12$175M12
Free cash flow (derived)$460M7$490M8$659M9$658M9$661M9
Total debt$5.04B13$5.03B14$5.02B15$4.81B16$5.8B16
Cash & equivalents$127M17$232M18$555M19$781M20$1.5B20
Diluted shares107.0M96.0M91.0M88.0M85.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$219.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$682.24

10 shares is a claim on $219.65 of net worth that earned you $73.29 and generated $77.76 of cash last year, against $682.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 9%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $75.25 and $213.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$213.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$659M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$136.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$659M
Earnings Power Value
$75.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$623M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.7%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $136.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.67
Base12.7%$136.41
Bull17.7%$177.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002967 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002967 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015192 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019379 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)