MeritValue

Alpha Star Acquisition Corp

ALSAFdata completeness 50%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————
Net income$1.11M1$4.92M2$1.34M3−$847,0483
Operating cash flow−$276,8674−$235,9255−$243,3956−$651,8116
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$110,9917———
Diluted shares3.2M3.2M3.2M3.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$9.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.64
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$9.25 of net worth that earned you −$2.64 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 4y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.23M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-026223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011791 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-026223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011791 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-008023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)