MeritValue

ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP

ALRSdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.35 and $7.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$92.7M1$115.6M2$164.9M3$221.6M3$279.6M3
Net income$52.7M4$40M5$11.7M6$17.8M6$17.4M6
Operating cash flow$149.8M7$103M8$26.8M9$21.7M9$67.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.71M10$1.79M11$3.07M12$12.4M12$8.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$148.1M7$101.2M8$23.7M9$9.38M9$58.8M9
Total debt$58.9M13$436.9M14$373.1M15$298M16$368M16
Cash & equivalents$242.3M17$58.2M18$129.9M19$61.2M20$67.2M20
Diluted shares17.5M18.9M20.1M21.3M25.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$219.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$143.2

10 shares is a claim on $219.84 of net worth that earned you $6.79 and generated $22.89 of cash last year, against $143.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 7%FY23 11%FY24 14%FY25 17%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 524% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.35 and $7.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.7M
Earnings Power Value
$7.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.32
Base0.0%$1.32
Bull5.0%$4.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003515 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002829 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007629 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006820 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)