MeritValue

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

ALRMdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.13 and $125.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$749M1$842.6M2$881.7M3$939.8M3$1.01B3
Net income$51.2M4$55.6M5$80.3M6$122.5M6$131.6M6
Operating cash flow$103.2M7$56.9M8$136M9$206.4M9$153.3M9
Capital expenditure$11.1M10$28.6M11$7.52M12$10.1M12$16.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$92.1M7$28.3M8$128.4M9$196.3M9$137M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$710.6M13$622.2M14$697M15$1.22B15$960.6M15
Diluted shares51.9M54.9M54.6M58.0M58.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$143.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $143.94 of net worth that earned you $22.34 and generated $23.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 9%FY23 12%FY24 17%FY25 16%

It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.13 and $125.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$125.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$137M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$83.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$137M
Earnings Power Value
$14.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$80.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $83.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.53
Base16.8%$83.33
Bull20.0%$92.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459200-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459200-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459200-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459200-24-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459200-25-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459200-26-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459200-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459200-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459200-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459200-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459200-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459200-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459200-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459200-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459200-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)