MeritValue

AstroNova, Inc.

ALOTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AstroNova, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.59 and $26.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$117.5M1$142.5M2$148.1M3$151.3M3$150.5M3
Net income$6.43M4$2.66M5$4.69M6−$14.5M6−$2.38M6
Operating cash flow$1.39M7−$2.94M8$12.4M9$4.85M9$11.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.8M10$229,00011$875,00012$1.17M12$332,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$402,0007−$3.17M8$11.5M9$3.68M9$11.4M9
Total debt$9.15M13$14.1M14$12.9M15$25.7M16$21.3M16
Cash & equivalents$5.28M17$3.95M18$4.53M19$5.05M20$4.07M20
Diluted shares7.3M7.4M7.5M7.5M7.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.01

10 shares is a claim on $100.95 of net worth that earned you −$3.12 and generated $14.98 of cash last year, against $28.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 -9%FY26 -1%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 133% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.59 and $26.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$11.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$11.4M
Earnings Power Value
$3.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.66M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.85
Base5.0%$23.96
Bull10.0%$30.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-156927 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-251606 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-156927 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-156927 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001193125-23-103662 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-156927 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001193125-23-103662 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-043875 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054163 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-156927 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)