MeritValue

ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

ALNYdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -173% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.83 and $18.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$844.3M1$1.04B2$1.83B3$2.25B3$3.71B3
Net income−$852.8M4−$1.13B5−$440.2M6−$278.2M6$313.7M6
Operating cash flow−$641.7M7−$541.3M8$104.2M9−$8.31M9$524.1M9
Capital expenditure$76.4M10$72.1M11$62.2M12$34.3M12$58.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$718.1M7−$613.3M8$41.9M9−$42.6M9$465.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$820M13$866.4M14$812.7M15$966.4M15$1.66B15
Diluted shares118.5M121.7M124.9M127.7M134.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$58.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.55
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $58.59 of net worth that earned you $23.3 and generated $34.55 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-173% avg · 5y
FY21 -145%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -415%FY25 40%

It earned about -173% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.83 and $18.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$41.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$41.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$17.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.75
Base5.0%$17.83
Bull10.0%$19.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178670-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178670-25-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007497 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178670-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178670-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007497 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178670-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178670-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007497 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178670-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178670-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007497 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178670-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178670-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007497 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)