ALUMIS INC.

ALMSdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ALUMIS INC. earns about -175% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3855% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	$24.1M¹
Net income	−$155M²	−$294.2M³	−$243.3M³
Operating cash flow	−$130M⁴	−$255.1M⁵	−$369.5M⁵
Capital expenditure	$4.5M⁶	$1.73M⁷	$653,000⁷
Free cash flow (derived)	−$134.5M⁴	−$256.8M⁵	−$370.2M⁵
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$46M⁸	$169.5M⁹	$89.7M⁹
Diluted shares	2.2M	28.3M	85.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$35.43

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$28.62

Free cash flow it threw off

−$43.53

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $35.43 of net worth that earned you −$28.62 and generated −$43.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-175% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -257%FY25 -94%

It earned an average -175% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+3855% shares · 3y

Share count is up 3855% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001847367-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847367-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847367-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847367-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847367-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847367-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847367-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847367-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847367-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)