ALUMINUM CORP OF CHINA LTD
ALMMFdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
ALUMINUM CORP OF CHINA LTD earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $74.41 and $11,993.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.2B1 | $27.3B2 | $28.5B3 | $42.3B4 | $42.2B5 |
| Net income | $108.6M6 | $122.2M7 | $113.6M8 | $797.1M9 | $607.8M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.89B11 | $1.79B12 | $2.28B13 | $4.43B14 | $4.02B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $981.1M16 | $1.28B17 | $772.2M18 | $320M19 | $640.3M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $912.3M11 | $514.5M12 | $1.51B13 | $4.11B14 | $3.38B15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.75B21 | $1.11B21 | $1.48B22 | $2.8B23 | $2.44B24 |
| Diluted shares | 16.8M | 17.0M | 17.0M | 17.0M | 17.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $4,633.64 of net worth that earned you $357.04 and generated $1,986.98 of cash last year.
It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $74.41 and $11,993.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.38B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.38B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$122.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $2,982.18 |
| Base | 20.0% | $6,621.49 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $6,621.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001161611-19-000052 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001387131-20-004040 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-053404 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-048663 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049473 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001161611-19-000052 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001387131-20-004040 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-053404 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-048663 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049473 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001161611-19-000052 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001387131-20-004040 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-053404 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-048663 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049473 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001161611-19-000052 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001387131-20-004040 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-053404 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-048663 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049473 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001387131-20-004040 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-053404 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-048663 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-049473 (CashAndCashEquivalents)