MeritValue

Ally Financial Inc.

ALLYdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Ally Financial Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $31.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$852M1$908M2$968M3$1.2B3$1.24B3
Net income$3.06B4$1.71B5$957M6$668M6$852M6
Operating cash flow$4.04B7$6.25B8$4.56B9$4.53B9$3.73B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$34.1B10$37.9B11$38.4B12$36.6B13$38.8B13
Cash & equivalents$5.06B14$5.57B15$6.95B16$10.3B17$10B17
Diluted shares365.2M318.6M305.1M310.2M313.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$495.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.22
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,240.56

10 shares is a claim on $495.08 of net worth that earned you $27.22 last year, against $1,240.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 8%FY23 15%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$31.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$957M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040729-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040729-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040729-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040729-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040729-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040729-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040729-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040729-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040729-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040729-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040729-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040729-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000040729-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040729-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040729-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040729-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000040729-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)