Allot Ltd.

ALLTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Allot Ltd. earns about -36% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.41 and $1.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$145.6M1$122.7M2$93.2M3$92.2M3$102M3
Net income−$15M4−$32M5−$62.8M6−$5.87M6$3.71M6
Operating cash flow−$8.37M7−$32.6M8−$29.7M9$4.83M9$17.8M9
Capital expenditure$7.64M10$5.64M11$2.49M12$2.12M12$2.29M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$16M7−$38.2M8−$32.2M9$2.71M9$15.5M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$11.7M13$12.3M14$14.2M15$16.1M16$17.1M16
Diluted shares36.1M37.0M37.9M38.9M46.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.8
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.36
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $24.54 of net worth that earned you $0.8 and generated $3.36 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -27%FY23 -137%FY24 -10%FY25 4%

It earned about -36% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.41 and $1.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.71M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.71M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.21
Base5.0%$1.41
Bull10.0%$1.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001297 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001069 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001946 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001297 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001946 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001297 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001946 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001297 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001946 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001297 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001946 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)