MeritValue

Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.

ALLRdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -156% on equity, but has diluted owners by 126% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$01$320,0001
Net income−$26.6M2−$16.1M3−$11.9M4−$24.5M5−$11.2M5
Operating cash flow−$14.9M6−$16.8M7−$12.7M8−$17.4M9−$14.8M9
Capital expenditure—$18,00010$011$298,00012$8,00012
Free cash flow (derived)—−$16.8M7−$12.7M8−$17.7M9−$14.8M9
Total debt—$2.64M13$2.94M14——
Cash & equivalents$19.6M15$2.03M16$166,00017$19.5M18$14.7M18
Diluted shares6.4M6,8052.0M1.6M14.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.83 of net worth that earned you −$7.81 and generated −$10.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-156% avg · 5y
FY21 -147%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -208%FY25 -114%

It earned an average -156% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+126% shares · 5y

Share count is up 126% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010310 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019295 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020864 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010198 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010310 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019295 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010198 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010310 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020864 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010198 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010310 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019295 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010198 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020864 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010310 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)