MeritValue

ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC.

ALKTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. earns about -19% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.58 and $3.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$152.2M1$204.3M2$264.8M3$333.8M3$443.6M3
Net income−$46.8M4−$58.6M5−$62.9M6−$40.8M6−$47.7M6
Operating cash flow−$29M7−$38M8−$17.5M9$18.6M9$42.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.12M10$1.06M11$1.06M12$1.2M12$1.54M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.1M7−$39.1M8−$18.6M9$17.4M9$41.4M9
Total debt$49.2M13$169.2M14$014——
Cash & equivalents$308.6M15$108.7M16$40.9M17$94.4M18$63.5M18
Diluted shares64.5M91.0M94.1M98.9M103.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $34.85 of net worth that earned you −$4.59 and generated $3.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-19% avg · 5y
FY21 -42%FY22 -11%FY23 -15%FY24 -12%FY25 -16%

It earned about -19% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.58 and $3.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3
Base5.0%$3.58
Bull10.0%$4.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529274-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529274-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529274-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529274-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-23-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529274-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529274-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529274-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001529274-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)