MeritValue

Alkermes plc.

ALKSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alkermes plc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.84 and $145.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.17B1$1.11B2$1.66B3$1.56B3$1.48B3
Net income−$48.2M4−$158.3M5$355.8M6$367.1M6$241.7M6
Operating cash flow$101.7M7$21M8$401.4M9$439.1M9$520.8M9
Capital expenditure$28M10$38.3M11$48M12$33.5M12$40.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73.7M7−$17.2M8$353.3M9$405.6M9$480.3M9
Total debt$295.8M13$293.3M14$290.7M15——
Cash & equivalents$337.5M16$292.5M17$457.5M18$291.1M18$388.6M18
Diluted shares164.8M163.7M169.7M169.2M168.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.47
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $107.81 of net worth that earned you $14.32 and generated $28.47 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 -1%FY23 43%FY24 32%FY25 17%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.84 and $145.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$145.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$80.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.6M
Earnings Power Value
$14.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$241.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $80.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.65
Base20.0%$80.68
Bull20.0%$80.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068925 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068925 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068925 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068925 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017883 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068925 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)