MeritValue

Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

ALHCdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alignment Healthcare, Inc. earns about -48% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.17B1$1.43B1$1.8B1$2.7B2$3.95B2
Net income−$195.3M3−$149.5M4−$148M5−$128M5−$724,0005
Operating cash flow−$78.8M6−$45.4M7−$59.2M8$34.8M8$139.9M8
Capital expenditure—$23.8M9$36M10$41.4M10$26.8M10
Free cash flow (derived)—−$69.2M7−$95.2M8−$6.65M8$113.1M8
Total debt$301.2M11$321.8M12$323.6M13$642.9M14$646.4M14
Cash & equivalents$466.6M15$409.5M16$202.9M17$432.9M17$575.8M17
Diluted shares181.9M181.2M186.2M190.8M198.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.64

10 shares is a claim on $9.05 of net worth that earned you −$0.04 and generated $5.71 of cash last year, against $32.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-48% avg · 5y
FY21 -100%FY22 -69%FY23 -36%FY24 -33%FY25 -0%

It earned an average -48% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 115% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021154 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021154 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008730 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021154 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008730 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005096 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021154 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008730 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021154 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012545 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)