Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.

ALHdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.62 and $17.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.37B1$1.51B1$1.71B1
Net income$88.2M2$98.3M2$101.8M2
Operating cash flow$208.7M3$145.5M3$211.7M3
Capital expenditure$32.7M4$43.5M4$53.7M4
Free cash flow (derived)$176M3$102M3$158M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$182.4M5$154.7M5$123.1M5
Diluted shares173.6M174.3M181.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.71
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $21.61 of net worth that earned you $5.61 and generated $8.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 3y
FY23 24%FY24 FY25 38%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 3y

Share count is up 4% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.62 and $17.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$158M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$158M
Earnings Power Value
$5.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$98.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.12
Base5.0%$16.13
Bull10.0%$19.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001317685-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001317685-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001317685-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001317685-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001317685-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)