MeritValue

ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC.

ALGMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.86 and $6.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$768.7M1$973.7M2$1.05B3$725M3$890.1M3
Net income$119.4M4$187.4M5$152.7M6−$73M6−$14.9M6
Operating cash flow$156.1M7$193.2M8$181.7M9$61.9M9$163.1M9
Capital expenditure$69.9M10$79.8M11$124.8M12$40M12$38.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$86.2M7$113.4M8$56.9M9$22M9$124.9M9
Total debt$50M13$50M14$498.6M15$685.1M16$568.2M16
Cash & equivalents$282.4M17$351.6M18$212.1M18$121.3M18$168.8M18
Diluted shares191.8M193.7M194.7M187.7M185.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.71

10 shares is a claim on $51.6 of net worth that earned you −$0.81 and generated $6.75 of cash last year, against $30.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 24%FY23 29%FY24 11%FY25 -3%FY26 0%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 1036% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.86 and $6.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56.9M
Earnings Power Value
$6.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$119.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.18
Base0.0%$2.18
Bull5.0%$3.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000950170-24-063770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000950170-24-063770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000950170-24-063770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000950170-24-063770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000866291-22-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063770 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-29 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-28 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-25 · accession 0000950170-25-076059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-233537 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)