MeritValue

Alector, Inc.

ALECdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Alector, Inc. earns about -140% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$207.1M1$133.6M2$97.1M2$100.6M3$21M3
Net income−$36.3M4−$133.3M5−$130.4M5−$119M6−$142.9M6
Operating cash flow$298.6M7−$20.3M8−$184.2M8−$229.9M9−$184M9
Capital expenditure$3.25M10$4.12M11$2.38M11$1.26M12$41,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$295.3M7−$24.4M8−$186.5M8−$231.2M9−$184.1M9
Total debt——$013$19.4M14$19.7M14
Cash & equivalents$329.2M15$154.3M16$74.6M17$33M18$65.8M18
Diluted shares80.4M82.5M83.7M96.6M103.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.88
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.91

10 shares is a claim on $2.98 of net worth that earned you −$13.88 and generated −$17.87 of cash last year, against $1.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-140% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -171%FY23 -166%FY24 -83%FY25 —

It earned an average -140% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021183 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021183 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027758 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071593 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)