MeritValue

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.

ALDXdata completeness 75%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -51% on equity, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$57.8M1−$62M2−$37.5M3−$55.9M4−$33.8M4
Operating cash flow−$42.6M5−$56.6M6−$30.3M7−$43.2M8−$33.3M8
Capital expenditure$7,8069$16,31710$010——
Free cash flow (derived)−$42.6M5−$56.7M6−$30.3M7——
Total debt$31.5M11$32.2M12$30.4M13$30.3M14$30.5M14
Cash & equivalents$229.8M15$144.4M16$142.8M17$54.5M18$70M18
Diluted shares54.0M58.4M58.9M59.5M60.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.64
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.09

10 shares is a claim on $7.37 of net worth that earned you −$5.64 last year, against $5.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-51% avg · 5y
FY21 -28%FY22 -41%FY23 -31%FY24 -79%FY25 -76%

It earned an average -51% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006998 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027933 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030102 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006998 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030102 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006998 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006998 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027933 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030102 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006998 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027933 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)