MeritValue

ALICO, INC.

ALCOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ALICO, INC. earns about -8% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$108.6M1$91.9M1$39.8M2$46.6M3$44.1M3
Net income$34.9M4$12.5M4$1.84M5$6.97M6−$147.3M6
Operating cash flow$16.5M7$6.52M7−$6.25M8−$30.5M9$20.1M9
Capital expenditure$22.3M10$20.7M10$16.7M11$17.9M12$5.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.75M7−$14.2M7−$22.9M8−$48.4M9$14.6M9
Total debt$4.29M13$211.9M14$208M15$167.4M16$166.1M16
Cash & equivalents$886,00017$865,00018$1.06M19$3.15M20$38.1M20
Diluted shares7.5M7.6M7.6M7.6M7.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$134.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$192.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$217.43

10 shares is a claim on $134.88 of net worth that earned you −$192.87 and generated $19.14 of cash last year, against $217.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 3%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 -62%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 3776% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$9.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.97M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026459 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026459 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000003545-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000003545-24-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000003545-25-000140 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)