MeritValue

Alternus Clean Energy, Inc.

ALCEdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alternus Clean Energy, Inc. earns about -41% on invested capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 4 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.2M1$11.2M1$311,0002$02
Net income−$18.4M3−$69.5M4$21.1M5−$6.49M5
Operating cash flow−$396,1226$3.04M7−$3.22M8−$2.49M8
Capital expenditure$1.15M9$4.58M10$1.49M11$011
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.55M6−$1.54M7−$4.71M8−$2.49M8
Total debt—$64.6M12$75.6M13$12.3M13
Cash & equivalents$705,00014$4.04M15$161,00016$32,00016
Diluted shares57.5M2.9M3.5M479,613

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$135.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$51.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$256.92

10 shares is a claim on $71.54 of net worth that earned you −$135.23 and generated −$51.81 of cash last year, against $256.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-41% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -46%FY25 -37%

It earned an average -41% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 4y

Share count is down 99% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.2.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-052242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-052242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-052242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-052242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-052242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-020545 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)