Alarum Technologies Ltd.

ALARdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Alarum Technologies Ltd. earns about -58% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 137% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.3 and $1.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.65M1$18.6M2$26.5M3$31.8M3$40.8M3
Net income−$13.1M4−$13.2M4−$5.53M5$5.78M5$963,0005
Operating cash flow−$9.11M6−$8.05M7$4.62M8$8.89M8−$2.01M8
Capital expenditure$73,0009$49,00010$55,00011$99,00011$143,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.18M6−$8.1M7$4.57M8$8.79M8−$2.16M8
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$3.83M12$3.29M13$10.9M13$15.1M13$12.3M13
Diluted shares30.3M32.6M59.7M69.1M71.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.13
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.3
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $4.47 of net worth that earned you $0.13 and generated −$0.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-58% avg · 5y
FY21 -37%FY22 -99%FY23 -208%FY24 51%FY25 5%

It earned about -58% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+137% shares · 5y

Share count is up 137% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.3 and $1.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.57M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.57M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$0.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.08
Base5.0%$1.3
Bull10.0%$1.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022367 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025287 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-031556 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024972 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-031556 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022367 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025287 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-031556 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022367 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025287 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-031556 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-025287 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-031556 (CashAndCashEquivalents)