Astera Labs, Inc.
ALABdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Astera Labs, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 425% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.06 and $11.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79.9M1 | $115.8M2 | $396.3M2 | $852.5M2 |
| Net income | −$58.3M3 | −$26.3M4 | −$83.4M4 | $219.1M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$35.9M5 | −$12.7M6 | $136.7M6 | $319.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.87M7 | $2.76M8 | $34.2M8 | $37.5M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$39.8M5 | −$15.5M6 | $102.4M6 | $281.8M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $76.1M9 | $45.1M10 | $79.6M11 | $167.6M11 |
| Diluted shares | 34.2M | 37.1M | 131.3M | 179.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $75.95 of net worth that earned you $12.2 and generated $15.69 of cash last year.
It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 425% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.06 and $11.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$102.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$102.4M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.08 |
| Base | 5.0% | $11.06 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $13.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736297-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736297-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736297-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736297-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736297-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001736297-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)