MeritValue

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.

AKBAdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -733% on equity, but has diluted owners by 55% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$211.7M1$292.5M2$194.6M3$160.2M3$236.2M3
Net income−$282M4−$94.2M5−$51.9M6−$69.4M6−$5.35M6
Operating cash flow−$253M7−$73.2M8−$23.4M9−$40.7M9$68M9
Capital expenditure$59,00010$114,00011$012$33,00012$291,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$253M7−$73.3M8−$23.4M9−$40.7M9$67.7M9
Total debt$195.1M13$132.2M14$69.4M15$77.4M16$96.5M16
Cash & equivalents$149.8M17$90.5M18$42.9M19$51.9M19$184.8M19
Diluted shares165.9M182.8M187.5M210.9M257.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.75

10 shares is a claim on $1.27 of net worth that earned you −$0.21 and generated $2.63 of cash last year, against $3.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-733% avg · 5y
FY21 -381%FY22 -1802%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -16%

It earned an average -733% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+55% shares · 5y

Share count is up 55% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012470 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-030697 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011270 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517022-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)