AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC

AKAMdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.91 and $104.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.46B1$3.62B2$3.81B3$3.99B3$4.21B3
Net income$651.6M4$523.7M5$547.6M6$504.9M6$452M6
Operating cash flow$1.4B7$1.27B8$1.35B9$1.52B9$1.52B9
Capital expenditure$329M10$241.3M11$457.9M12$390.4M12$507.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.08B7$1.03B8$890.5M9$1.13B9$1.01B9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$536.7M13$542.3M14$489.5M15$517.7M15$930.2M15
Diluted shares165.8M160.5M155.4M154.3M147.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$338.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.76
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $338.54 of net worth that earned you $30.75 and generated $68.76 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 14%FY23 14%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.91 and $104.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$97.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$104.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
Earnings Power Value
$36.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$523.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $104.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$104.57
Base0.0%$104.57
Bull5.0%$128.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001086222-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001086222-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001086222-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001086222-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001086222-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001086222-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001086222-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001086222-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001086222-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001086222-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001086222-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001086222-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001086222-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001086222-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001086222-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)