ASSURANT, INC.
AIZdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on fileASSURANT, INC. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $154.2 and $1,333.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2B1 | $10.2B2 | $11.1B3 | $11.9B3 | $12.8B3 |
| Net income | $1.36B4 | $276.6M5 | $642.5M6 | $760.2M6 | $872.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $781.7M7 | $596.9M8 | $1.14B9 | $1.33B9 | $1.83B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $187.4M10 | $186.3M11 | $202.5M12 | $221.3M12 | $235.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $594.3M7 | $410.6M8 | $935.6M9 | $1.11B9 | $1.6B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.04B13 | $1.54B14 | $1.63B15 | $1.81B16 | $1.83B16 |
| Diluted shares | 60.1M | 54.8M | 53.2M | 52.1M | 51.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,149.34 of net worth that earned you $170.83 and generated $312.88 of cash last year.
It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $154.2 and $1,333.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.11B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.11B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$760.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $346.73 |
| Base | 20.0% | $745.2 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $745.2 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267238-24-000008 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267238-25-000008 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267238-26-000010 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267238-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267238-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267238-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267238-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267238-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267238-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267238-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267238-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267238-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267238-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267238-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267238-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001267238-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)