APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES INC

AITdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $104.62 and $710.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.81B1$4.41B2$4.48B3$4.56B3$4.97B3
Net income$257.4M4$346.7M5$385.8M6$393M6$414.5M6
Operating cash flow$187.6M7$344M8$371.4M9$492.4M9$484.1M9
Capital expenditure$18.1M10$26.5M11$24.9M12$27.2M12$23.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$169.4M7$317.5M8$346.5M9$465.2M9$460.5M9
Total debt$689.3M13$622.1M14$597.3M15$572.3M16$262.3M16
Cash & equivalents$184.5M17$344M18$460.6M18$388.4M18$127.1M18
Diluted shares39.1M39.2M39.3M38.8M37.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$491.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$109.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$121.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$69.29

10 shares is a claim on $491.78 of net worth that earned you $109.5 and generated $121.65 of cash last year, against $69.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY22 17%FY23 21%FY24 22%FY25 20%FY26 20%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 62% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $104.62 and $710.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$710.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$460.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$387.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$460.5M
Earnings Power Value
$104.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$385.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$111.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $387.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$167.94
Base20.0%$387.39
Bull20.0%$387.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-24-000092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-24-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-24-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-24-000092 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-23-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-24-000092 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000109563-25-000080 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000109563-26-000033 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)