MeritValue

Airship AI Holdings, Inc.

AISPdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.5M1$12.3M2$12.3M2$23.1M3$15.3M3
Net income−$487,4934$16.4M4$16.4M5−$57.5M6$29.3M6
Operating cash flow−$2.9M7−$3.29M8−$3.29M8−$6.5M9−$8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$131,60810$010$010——
Cash & equivalents$298,61411$3.12M12$3.12M12$11.4M13$11.8M13
Diluted shares13.4M20.4M20.4M24.6M38.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$1.85 of net worth that earned you $7.58 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+189% shares · 5y

Share count is up 189% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$4.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004059 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002153 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-001280 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-001280 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-001280 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-002153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-001280 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)