AIR T INC
AIRTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
AIR T INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.78 and $43.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $177.1M1 | $247.3M2 | $286.8M3 | $291.9M4 | $327.1M4 |
| Net income | $10.9M5 | −$12.3M6 | −$6.82M7 | −$6.14M8 | $78M8 |
| Operating cash flow | −$33.1M9 | $16.9M10 | $17.2M11 | $23.5M12 | −$25M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.53M13 | $1.18M14 | $1.08M15 | $1.08M16 | $16.5M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$34.6M9 | $15.7M10 | $16.1M11 | $22.4M12 | −$41.5M12 |
| Total debt | $135.8M17 | $125.1M18 | $112.9M19 | $110.3M20 | $208.2M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $5.62M21 | $5.81M22 | $7.1M23 | $5.93M24 | $20.3M24 |
| Diluted shares | 2.9M | 2.8M | 2.8M | 2.8M | 2.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $295.26 of net worth that earned you $288.51 and generated −$153.63 of cash last year, against $770.24 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.78 and $43.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$16.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$16.1M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $14.49 |
| Base | 5.0% | $34.78 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $59.06 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-22-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (Revenues)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-23-000074 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-23-000074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-23-000074 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-23-000074 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000353184-23-000074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000353184-24-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000353184-25-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000353184-26-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)