MeritValue

AIR INDUSTRIES GROUP

AIRIdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AIR INDUSTRIES GROUP earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$58.9M1$53.2M2$51.5M3$55.1M4$47.9M4
Net income$1.63M5−$1.08M6−$2.13M7−$1.37M8−$1.31M8
Operating cash flow$4.06M9$448,00010$4.86M11$324,00012−$1.35M12
Capital expenditure$1.36M13$2.36M14$2.12M15$2.3M16$3.32M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.7M9−$1.91M10$2.74M11−$1.98M12−$4.67M12
Total debt$23.4M17$33.6M18$38.3M19$43.7M20$54.8M20
Cash & equivalents$627,00021$281,00022$346,00022$753,00023$4.61M23
Diluted shares3.6M3.2M3.3M3.3M4.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$129.97

10 shares is a claim on $45.53 of net worth that earned you −$3.09 and generated −$11.08 of cash last year, against $129.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -0%FY23 -1%FY24 0%FY25 0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 134% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040540 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031944 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040540 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031944 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031944 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040540 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031944 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-015031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-031944 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-040540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035731 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)