MeritValue

AIRGAIN INC

AIRGdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AIRGAIN INC earns about -31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.3M1$75.9M2$56M3$60.6M4$51.8M4
Net income−$10.1M5−$8.66M6−$12.4M7−$8.69M8−$6.43M8
Operating cash flow−$11.2M9$4.45M10−$3.3M11−$3.53M12−$1.11M12
Capital expenditure$736,00013$763,00014$346,00015$178,00016$166,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.9M9$3.68M10−$3.65M11−$3.71M12−$1.28M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$14.5M17$11.9M18$7.88M19$8.51M20$7.36M20
Diluted shares10.0M10.2M10.4M11.1M11.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$23.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $23.89 of net worth that earned you −$5.43 and generated −$1.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -24%FY23 -41%FY24 -31%FY25 -24%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008785 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027341 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029234 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076752 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008785 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027341 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029234 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076752 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008785 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027341 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029234 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076752 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008785 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027341 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029234 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076752 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008785 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027341 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029234 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076752 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)