MeritValue

Powerfleet, Inc.

AIOTdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Powerfleet, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 386817% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$126M1$135.9M2$133.7M3$362.5M3$443.8M3
Net income−$12.8M4−$6.75M5−$5.68M6−$51M6−$20.6M6
Operating cash flow−$5.39M7$1.25M8$4.4M9−$3.35M9$30.5M9
Capital expenditure$2.4M10$4.01M11$3.46M12$20M12$21.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.79M7−$2.76M8$933,0009−$23.4M9$8.84M9
Total debt$54.6M13$42.3M14$32.2M15$516.1M16$522.9M16
Cash & equivalents$26.5M17$17.7M18$19M18$44.4M18$36.5M18
Diluted shares34,57135.6M35.6M119.9M133.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$39.09

10 shares is a claim on $35.55 of net worth that earned you −$1.54 and generated $0.66 of cash last year, against $39.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -4%FY23 -7%FY25 -4%FY26 -1%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+386817% shares · 5y

Share count is up 386817% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 858% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$933,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$933,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-033105 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-033105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-033105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-033105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010426 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-018526 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-033105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043187 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)