MeritValue

AIOS Tech Inc.

AIOSdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AIOS Tech Inc. earns about -1070% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 116% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $39.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$92.1M1$90.8M1$386.7M2$340.2M2$5.07M2
Net income$30.4M3$17.6M4$17.6M5$5.79M5−$220.9M5
Operating cash flow$23.9M6−$29M7$35.5M8−$75.7M8−$26.9M8
Capital expenditure$186,7059$652,58510$503,95711$26,67711—
Free cash flow (derived)$23.7M6−$29.6M7$35M8−$75.7M8—
Total debt$784,60912$869,91813$1.97M14$5.27M14—
Cash & equivalents$91.4M15$63.9M16$114.5M16$6.11M17$1.41M17
Diluted shares2.2M4.0M3.9M4.1M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$476.43
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.11 of net worth that earned you −$476.43 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1070% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 15%FY23 -0%FY24 -4%FY25 -5393%

It earned an average -1070% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+116% shares · 5y

Share count is up 116% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 572% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$39.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-060806 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045606 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-060806 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036787 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045606 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-060806 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036787 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-060806 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036787 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045606 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-064526 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-064526 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036787 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-060806 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036787 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-045606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)