MeritValue

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC.

AIGdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.19 and $601.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$52.2B1$30B2$27.9B3$27.3B3$26.8B3
Net income$10.4B4$10.2B5$3.64B6−$1.4B6$3.1B6
Operating cash flow$6.22B7$4.13B8$6.24B9$3.27B9$3.31B9
Capital expenditure$343M10$210M11$240M11——
Free cash flow (derived)$5.88B7$3.92B8$6B9——
Total debt$30.2B12$28.7B12$10.9B13$8.92B14$9.19B14
Cash & equivalents$2.43B15$1.57B16$1.57B17$1.37B17$1.35B17
Diluted shares864.9M787.9M725.2M657.3M570.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$721.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$161.15

10 shares is a claim on $721.29 of net worth that earned you $54.28 last year, against $161.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 7%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 70% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.19 and $601.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$601.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.88B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$322.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.88B
Earnings Power Value
$66.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.64B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$93.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $322.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$133.54
Base20.0%$322.37
Bull20.0%$322.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-24-000023 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005272-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005272-26-000023 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005272-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005272-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005272-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005272-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005272-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005272-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000005272-26-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000005272-24-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000005272-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000005272-26-000023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)