MeritValue

C3.ai, Inc.

AIdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

C3.ai, Inc. earns about -37% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$252.8M1$266.8M2$310.6M3$389.1M3$250.3M3
Net income−$192.1M4−$268.8M5−$279.7M6−$288.7M6−$470.4M6
Operating cash flow−$86.5M7−$115.7M8−$62.4M9−$41.4M9−$190.2M9
Capital expenditure$3.79M10$70.5M11$25.3M12$3.04M12$1.91M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$90.3M7−$186.2M8−$87.6M9−$44.4M9−$192.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$339.5M13$284.8M14$167.1M15$164.4M15$66.2M15
Diluted shares104.4M109.9M119.4M129.1M140.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$33.48
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.53 of net worth that earned you −$33.48 and generated −$13.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-37% avg · 5y
FY22 -23%FY23 -33%FY24 -31%FY25 -34%FY26 -63%

It earned an average -37% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-028786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-032604 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001577526-26-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-028786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-032604 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001577526-26-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-028786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-032604 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001577526-26-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-028786 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-032604 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001577526-26-000078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-028786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001628280-25-032604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001577526-26-000078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)