MeritValue

ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST INC

AHTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST INC earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 73% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$805.4M1$1.24B2$1.37B3$1.17B3$1.1B3
Net income−$267M4−$139.8M5−$178.5M6−$60.3M6−$179.8M6
Operating cash flow−$144.2M7$39.2M8$14.4M9−$23.6M9−$15.7M9
Capital expenditure$36.7M10$103.8M11$137.4M12$108M12$71.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$180.9M7−$64.5M8−$123M9−$131.6M9−$86.8M9
Total debt$3.89B13$3.84B14$3.04B15$2.63B16$2.53B16
Cash & equivalents$592.1M17$417.1M18$165.2M18$112.9M18$66.1M18
Diluted shares21.8M3.4M3.5M4.7M6.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1,048.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$301.04
Free cash flow it threw off
−$145.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$4,229.34

10 shares is a claim on −$1,048.46 of net worth that earned you −$301.04 and generated −$145.33 of cash last year, against $4,229.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 2%FY23 5%FY24 8%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−73% shares · 5y

Share count is down 73% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-24-000035 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001232582-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001232582-26-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)