MeritValue

ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD

AHL-PDdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 52% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $38.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.63B1$2.89B2$2.97B3$3.26B3$3.22B3
Net income$29.8M4$51.1M5$534.7M6$486.1M6$340.2M6
Operating cash flow$524.7M7−$55M8$324.7M9$554.9M9$439M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$299.9M10$299.9M11$600M11$300M12$296.8M12
Cash & equivalents$1.31B13$959.2M14$1.03B15$914.2M16$1.66B16
Diluted shares60.4M60.4M90.8M90.8M91.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$396.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.17
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.42

10 shares is a claim on $396.04 of net worth that earned you $37.17 last year, against $32.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 1%FY23 18%FY24 19%FY25 16%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+52% shares · 5y

Share count is up 52% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$38.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$340.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.15
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267395-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267395-25-000019 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267395-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267395-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267395-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267395-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267395-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267395-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267395-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267395-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267395-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001267395-26-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001267395-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001267395-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001267395-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001267395-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)