MeritValue

ARGAN INC

AGXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ARGAN INC earns about 55% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.01 and $702.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$509.4M1$455M2$573.3M3$874.2M3$944.6M3
Net income$38.2M4$33.1M5$32.4M6$85.5M6$137.8M6
Operating cash flow$28.4M7−$30.1M8$116.9M9$167.6M9$414.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.42M10$3.37M11$2.76M12$6.58M12$3.88M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27M7−$33.4M8$114.1M9$161M9$410.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$350.5M13$173.9M14$197M15$145.3M16$339.5M16
Diluted shares15.9M14.2M13.5M13.9M14.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$326.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$97.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$290.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $326.76 of net worth that earned you $97.39 and generated $290.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
55% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 32%FY24 34%FY25 41%FY26 112%

It earned about 55% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.01 and $702.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$702.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$161M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$395.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$161M
Earnings Power Value
$28.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$38.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $395.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$186.6
Base20.0%$395.04
Bull20.0%$395.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004979 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003819 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035216 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004979 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003819 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035216 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004979 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003819 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035216 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004979 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003819 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035216 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003819 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035216 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)