MeritValue

Adecoagro S.A.

AGROdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Adecoagro S.A. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.2 and $83.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$817.8M1$1.12B2$1.35B3$1.3B3$1.52B3
Net income$412,0004$130.7M5$108.1M6$226.3M6$92.3M6
Operating cash flow$257.1M7$348.7M8$370M9$434.9M9$328.3M9
Capital expenditure$168.5M10$199.3M11$217.8M12$241.6M12$260.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$88.6M7$149.4M8$152.3M9$193.3M9$68.1M9
Total debt$971.1M13$817.7M14$1.01B15$904.9M15$779.6M15
Cash & equivalents$336.3M16$199.8M17$230.7M17$339.8M17$211.2M17
Diluted shares117.3M111.1M108.2M106.0M100.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$136.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$77.91

10 shares is a claim on $136.84 of net worth that earned you $9.23 and generated $6.81 of cash last year, against $77.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY20 0%FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 13%FY24 2%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.2 and $83.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$83.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.8%
  • fcfBase$152.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.8%
  • fcfBase$152.3M
Earnings Power Value
$11.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$108.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.06
Base19.8%$43.51
Bull20.0%$43.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-013277 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-013277 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-013277 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-013277 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-013277 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018617 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001499505-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalents)