ProShares Trust II

AGQdata completeness 63%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ProShares Trust II earns about -17% on equity, and has bought back 31% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$1.68B¹	$95.8M²	−$2.48B³	−$39.4M³	$1.71B³
Operating cash flow	−$3.21B⁴	$1.16B⁵	−$1.54B⁶	$208.8M⁶	−$246.3M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$1.47B⁷	$2.28B⁸	$2.6B⁸	$2.58B⁸	$3.25B⁸
Diluted shares	179.9M	87.1M	82.6M	86.4M	123.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$462.27

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$138.25

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $462.27 of net worth that earned you $138.25 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-17% avg · 5y

FY21 -40%FY22 2%FY23 -76%FY24 -1%FY25 30%

It earned an average -17% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−31% shares · 5y

Share count is down 31% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-260991 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-039791 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077441 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-260991 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-039791 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077441 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-039791 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077441 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)