MeritValue

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

AGOdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $82.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$88M1$93M2$53M3$03$03
Net income$389M4$124M5$739M6$376M6$503M6
Operating cash flow−$1.94B7−$2.48B8$461M9$47M9$259M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.67B10$1.68B11$1.69B12$1.7B13$1.7B13
Cash & equivalents$342M14$207M15$286M15$128M15$419M15
Diluted shares74.3M63.9M59.6M54.3M48.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,162.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$103.29
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$349.9

10 shares is a claim on $1,162.83 of net worth that earned you $103.29 last year, against $349.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 3%FY23 11%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$82.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$389M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$163.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273813-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273813-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273813-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273813-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273813-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273813-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273813-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273813-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273813-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273813-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273813-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273813-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001273813-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273813-25-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273813-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)