MeritValue

AGNT, Inc.

AGNTdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AGNT, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.37 and $17.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.77B1$4.59B2$4.27B3$4.57B3$4.77B3
Net income$81.2M4$15.4M5−$8.97M6−$21.3M6−$22.7M6
Operating cash flow$246.9M7$210.5M8$209.1M9$191.5M9$118.6M9
Capital expenditure$13.4M10$12.1M11$5.36M12$6.48M12$9.57M12
Free cash flow (derived)$233.5M7$198.5M8$203.8M9$185M9$109M9
Total debt$2.71M13$4.7M14$20,00014——
Cash & equivalents$108.2M15$121.6M16$125.9M17$113.6M18$124.2M18
Diluted shares157.7M156.2M156.8M153.7M156.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $15.48 of net worth that earned you −$1.45 and generated $6.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 12%FY23 3%FY24 -14%FY25 -13%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.37 and $17.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$185M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$185M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.64
Base0.0%$17.64
Bull5.0%$21.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001223 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019145 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001223 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002334 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001527 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001223 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)