MeritValue

AGNC Investment Corp.

AGNCdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AGNC Investment Corp. earns about 3% on equity, but has diluted owners by 93% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$749M1−$1.19B2$155M3$863M3$1.67B3
Operating cash flow$1.54B4$1.01B5−$118M6$86M6$653M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$998M7$1.02B8$518M9$505M9$450M9
Diluted shares530.0M537.0M619.6M786.0M1.02B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$121.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.31
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $121.06 of net worth that earned you $16.31 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 -15%FY23 2%FY24 9%FY25 13%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+93% shares · 5y

Share count is up 93% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$749M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001423689-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001423689-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001423689-26-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001423689-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001423689-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001423689-26-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001423689-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001423689-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001423689-26-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)