MeritValue

FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP

AGMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $186.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$426M1$716.8M2$1.39B3$1.6B3$1.61B3
Net income$136.1M4$178.1M5$200M6$207.2M6$207.4M6
Operating cash flow$436.4M7$809.3M8$375.8M9$612.6M9$80.1M9
Capital expenditure—$010$011$5.27M11$011
Free cash flow (derived)—$809.3M8$375.8M9$607.4M9$80.1M9
Total debt$45.5B12$50B13$53.2B14$55B15$61.6B16
Cash & equivalents$908.8M17$861M18$888.7M18$1.02B19$931.1M19
Diluted shares10.8M10.9M10.9M11.0M11.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,565.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$188.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$72.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$56,115.6

10 shares is a claim on $1,565.1 of net worth that earned you $188.85 and generated $72.9 of cash last year, against $56,115.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 35% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$375.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$375.8M
Earnings Power Value
$186.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$200M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$241.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000845877-24-000028 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-25-000033 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000845877-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000845877-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000845877-22-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-23-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000845877-24-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000845877-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000845877-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000845877-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000845877-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)