MeritValue

agilon health, inc.

AGLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

agilon health, inc. earns about -337% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.52B1$2.39B2$4.32B3$6.06B3$5.93B3
Net income−$406.5M4−$106.6M5−$262.6M6−$260.2M6−$391.3M6
Operating cash flow−$148.2M7−$130.8M8−$156.2M9−$57.8M9−$105.8M9
Capital expenditure$6.56M10$15.4M11$15.8M12$13.3M12$13.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$154.7M7−$146.2M8−$172M9−$71M9−$119M9
Total debt$97.2M13$87.2M14$77.1M15$34.9M16$70M16
Cash & equivalents$1.04B17$465.3M18$107.6M19$188.2M20$173.7M20
Diluted shares372.9M408.2M408.9M411.0M414.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.69

10 shares is a claim on $3.06 of net worth that earned you −$9.45 and generated −$2.87 of cash last year, against $1.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-337% avg · 5y
FY21 -200%FY22 -10%FY23 -23%FY24 -62%FY25 -1388%

It earned an average -337% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005541 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005541 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007721 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011655 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)